Global Cellphone Sales Forecast to Slip

Decline Expected in 2009 as Asian-Pacific Growth Stalls Amid Downturn

By ADAM EWING

Global mobile-phone sales are set to drop next year as the economic slowdown hits consumer demand world-wide, research firm Gartner Inc. said Tuesday.

"We expect sales in 2009 to show a low-single-digit growth contraction" from 2008 levels, said Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi. Market conditions are expected to remain challenging through at least the first half of next year, she said.

Growth in the Asian-Pacific region, which includes powerhouses China and India, is expected to grind to a halt in the fourth quarter of this year as the global economic decline hits consumer spending, the research firm said.

In the third quarter of 2008, about 309 million mobile phones were sold world-wide, Gartner said -- a 6% increase from a year earlier, but a sharp slowdown from the 16% year-to-year growth seen in the third quarter of 2007. Replacement sales were hit especially hard, while first-time users remained active, Gartner said.

Sales in Japan fell 28% to 9.4 million handsets as consumers showed little interest in upgrading their phones.

The North American market grew 4.5% from last year to 47 million handsets, with smart phones a key sales driver.

Western European sales slumped 7.8% to 43.5 million phones from the 47.2 million sold last year. A longer replacement cycle hurt the market and will continue to do so in the fourth quarter.continued...